1. The Bubble In Credit
Post Crisis Recoveries... Temporary Blip, or permanently altered trajectory?
The current recovery in context...Fine in some respects, but something seems broken
A Crisis of Demand? Not just a matter of lowering rates (the balance sheet-recession)
More Borrowing = More Growth? previous growth was founded upon borrowing - was it real?
How Much Have We Borrowed? More debt in more sectors in more countries than ever before
Wealth Effects - spending only possible because of high net worth
Leading To The Growth Triangle - But Don't Look Down!!!
Love Triangle or Pyramid Scheme?
2. Ways Of Deleveraging
Balancing Government's Books - Austerity works if offset by private leveraging
Assessing The Broader Economy...but the private sector is in savings mode too!
Whole Economy Deleveraging - much harder - unless you debase the currrency
The Effect On GDP - without FX, adjustment is extremely painful!
Bring On The Central Banks - But don't expect them to work miracles
3. Investment Implications
Saved, or Doomed? It's all a question of confidence!
Growth - Lower, but above all, more volatile!!
Expectations Management - Optimism is becoming harder to sustain
Real Estate - Deleveraging + Older Populations = Downward Spiral
Equities - The end of the equity culture?
Banks and Bankruptcies - Be wary of multiples on leveraged instruments
Fixed Income - low yields should eventually make for tight spreads...
Credit -...but only once the bankruptcies are out of the way
Structured Credit - Better the devil you know (EFSF anyone?)
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