total US debt has increased by 41.5%, or $4.4 trillion, from $10,626,877,048,913 on January 20, to $15,033,607,255,920, under Obama as president.
(as a reminder the most recently updated debt ceiling is $15.194 trillion)2011年11月17日星期四
It's Official: Total US Debt Passes $15 Trillion
total US debt has increased by 41.5%, or $4.4 trillion, from $10,626,877,048,913 on January 20, to $15,033,607,255,920, under Obama as president.
(as a reminder the most recently updated debt ceiling is $15.194 trillion)
歐債到期日
2011年11月17日歐債危機由西班牙炒到意大利再到法國，以經濟體積來講，是越炒越大。順理推斷下去，下個站應是到德國了。迄今為止德國長短債息皆在下跌，彷彿該國狀態尤佳、地位超然。
然而以去年底國債佔 GDP計，法國 82.3%，德國 83.2%，德國比法國還差。如是擔心法國未來數月到期債務趨升，那末觀圖所見，德國教人擔心的程度不相上下。短線下試 1.28
目前德國只靠避險資金湧入其債市推低債 息，暫避一劫。但資金湧入不是必然的，尤是當其基本因素也不算好之際，只要市場想法一轉，忽然認清真相，德國明年下場，跟今年的法、意難有大別。固之然， 當意大利如希臘般債息達雙位數，歐元已近收檔；當德國也步後塵，歐元可正式收檔。美、日本質一樣，遲早也會收檔，但屬後話。
後話日後再說，回到目前，如圖所示，歐債到期高峯起碼至明年 4月。未來半年，看來炒作主題還在歐債；新聞界就慘了，講到乾塘、寫到墨盡。實話實說，歐元收檔，價位幾多都得；但在此之前會逐格試：短 1.28（年初低位），中 1.14（跌勢底部）。
長的？不是一算。十年前歐元冧，是算二直插 8毫。
羅家聰
交通銀行香港分行市場部
本欄逢周四刊出
2011年11月16日星期三
China's Yield Curve Inversion Signals Sharp Slowdown Ahead
the US 'cannot' be in recession because the yield curve has not inverted. Well, unfortunately for the savior-of-the-universe Chinese economy, their yield curve (the 2s-10s differential) has just inverted for the first time - suggesting, as per Mike Darda of MKM, the Chinese economy is “set to slow rather sharply” and that has “negative implications” for commodities tied to industrial growth. Following on from our discussion of the 1tn RMB deposit infusion bailout, Darda also points out (via Bloomberg) the 8 months-in-a-row of OECD Leading index drops, weakness in the China PMI sub-indices, and the fragility of the shadow banking system via cracks in the real estate market and notes, with a wonderfully indignant note on CB success:
"It is worth remembering that the Fed has engineered only one soft landing in six decades of post-war monetary policy-making (1995)".
Further to this the FT reports a growing concern (noted here by HSBC's CEO Stuart Gulliver) over the potential for an Asian credit crunch both self-created and exogenously-driven by European bank deleveraging:
“The strong increases in credit availability in Asia that has supported demand growth cannot continue indefinitely,” said Mr Gulliver, who was speaking in Hong Kong the day before his bank announces its third-quarter results. “Any reduction in credit availability is likely to be gradual – but it remains a risk policymakers will need to manage. And we need to be careful to monitor the risk of a sharp withdrawal of credit by European banks as a result of events at home.”
And as the rate environment starts to adjust to 'slow' growth and a 'soft-landing', perhaps commodities will continue to slide south. Arguably - a 2s10s steepener on China seems like a way to play a harder-landing and the leading appearance of the commodity index suggests we have lots to look forward to (paging Dr. Copper?).
"It is worth remembering that the Fed has engineered only one soft landing in six decades of post-war monetary policy-making (1995)".
Further to this the FT reports a growing concern (noted here by HSBC's CEO Stuart Gulliver) over the potential for an Asian credit crunch both self-created and exogenously-driven by European bank deleveraging:
“The strong increases in credit availability in Asia that has supported demand growth cannot continue indefinitely,” said Mr Gulliver, who was speaking in Hong Kong the day before his bank announces its third-quarter results. “Any reduction in credit availability is likely to be gradual – but it remains a risk policymakers will need to manage. And we need to be careful to monitor the risk of a sharp withdrawal of credit by European banks as a result of events at home.”
And as the rate environment starts to adjust to 'slow' growth and a 'soft-landing', perhaps commodities will continue to slide south. Arguably - a 2s10s steepener on China seems like a way to play a harder-landing and the leading appearance of the commodity index suggests we have lots to look forward to (paging Dr. Copper?).
The CRB index appears to lead curve regime shifts - is the front-end of China's yield curve about to pop?
UPDATE: While the on-the-run 2y yield did trade above the 10Y yield on 9/26
(2s10s inverted), Bloomberg's generic 2Y CNY yield index has not updated in
three weeks meaning Mr. Darda's analysis is based upon faulty information. We do
not ethat since late September's inversion, however, the curve has begun to
steepen - which fits with the cycle turn analysis he discusses. (h/t SD!)
See below for the on-the-run 2Y and 10Y CNY bond yields:
2011年11月15日星期二
財務資料
和記黃埔（ 013）和長江基建（ 1038）上周破天荒公佈第三季財務資料，我相信可以印證幾樣事情： 1）李嘉誠要求每天得到公司最新經營數據的傳聞，是真的； 2）編製季報對長和系是輕而易舉的事情，即使要求按月發報營運數據，長和系也能應付自如； 3）長和系 4年前反對實施季報的理由，不是理由。
和黃上周二（ 11月 8日）自願發佈季度財務資料，不但首次披露第三季營運數據，當中一些細項，例如歐洲零售業務的收益和 EBITDA，是連中期報告也沒有提供的分類資料。
除了第三季數據，這份財務資料還提供了歐洲港口和零售業務的 10月份收益表現。換句話說，和黃僅僅用了 6個工作天，就能夠整理出遍佈歐洲 22個國家的數千家零售門市，以及位於 8個歐洲國家近 10個港口的最新營運數據，兼且製作了包含按年比較資料的精美 Powerpoint，對外發放。
這份資料有力地向外界說明，長和系一直有完善的財務滙報系統，我相信是按每天為基礎統計全球業務的經營數據，讓集團管理層緊密地監察業務表現。當長和系管 理層覺得有需要時，例如今次面對歐洲債務危機，投資者疑慮日增的時候，原來可以極之迅速地──只需最多 6個工作天，就能夠提供十分仔細──甚至比中期業績報告更仔細──的財務數據。在此基礎上，要製作不用審核的季度報告，試問又有何難度可言？
和黃上周二（ 11月 8日）自願發佈季度財務資料，不但首次披露第三季營運數據，當中一些細項，例如歐洲零售業務的收益和 EBITDA，是連中期報告也沒有提供的分類資料。
除了第三季數據，這份財務資料還提供了歐洲港口和零售業務的 10月份收益表現。換句話說，和黃僅僅用了 6個工作天，就能夠整理出遍佈歐洲 22個國家的數千家零售門市，以及位於 8個歐洲國家近 10個港口的最新營運數據，兼且製作了包含按年比較資料的精美 Powerpoint，對外發放。
這份資料有力地向外界說明，長和系一直有完善的財務滙報系統，我相信是按每天為基礎統計全球業務的經營數據，讓集團管理層緊密地監察業務表現。當長和系管 理層覺得有需要時，例如今次面對歐洲債務危機，投資者疑慮日增的時候，原來可以極之迅速地──只需最多 6個工作天，就能夠提供十分仔細──甚至比中期業績報告更仔細──的財務數據。在此基礎上，要製作不用審核的季度報告，試問又有何難度可言？
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