|
DR. JEROME BAUMRING'S SUPPLEMENTARY
REDING LISTS
BAUMRING
SCIENNTIFIC & METAPHYSICAL READING LIST
Dr. BAUMRING compiled numerous works useful for
explaining every aspect of the markets, expanding Gann’s list of recommended works.
These books were carefully selected to elucidate primary aspects of knowledge
essential for an understanding of Gann’s Market Cosmology. See the Seeker's
Sanctum for prices and availability at the following links.
The Apocalypse of the Golden
Mean.
This is the most important book on the
golden mean and its true meaning and relationship to ancient architecture and
the universe. Jerry considered this book so important that he kept it locked away
and never released it to any of his students.
Nature’s Harmonic Unity;
Samuel Colman;
1911; 327p. Probably the best book on the
harmonic ordering processes of nature. Filled with beautiful harmonic
diagrams, and highly recommended by Dr. BAUMRING.
Proportional Form: Further
Studies In The Science Of Beauty,
Being Supplemental To Those Set Forth In "Nature’s
Harmonic Unity"; Colman, Samuel; Coan, C. A.; 1920; 265 pages. This is
Colman’s 2nd work completed two years before he died. It is an important companion
to Nature’s Harmonic Unity, and one of the best books on order and geometry
in nature.
The Lodge and the Craft;
Rollin Blackmer; 1923; 287p. As stated by
Dr. BAUMRING,
this book contains one of the Three Keys to Gann. This is one of the few
Masonic books which contains explicitly important knowledge and has direct
connections to Tunnel Through the Air.
Behold! The Circle Squared
Beyond Refutation;
Heisel and Faber; 1934; 238p. The
solution to the squaring of the circle, giving numerical proportions
meaningful to the market.
Spiritism:
The Hidden Secret in Einstein’s Theory of
Relativity; Clara A. Speight-Humberston; 1915; 232p. This was one of Dr. BAUMRING’s
secret books formative in his understanding of the markets. It relates
cellular life with alchemy and sacred numbers.
The Lost Solar System of the
Ancients Discovered, 2 Vols.;
John Wilson; 1856; 1000p. This was one of
Dr. BAUMRING’s
most highly recommended books and is one of the best sources of information
on market cosmology, number series, astronomy and ancient architecture. This
is the only source for this extremely rare and valuable book.
New Laws For Natural
Phenomena;
Thomas Graydon; 1938. This was one of the
main books on Dr. BAUMRING’s reading list. It goes into cosmic
order and laws of astronomical harmony.
The Emerald Tablets of Thoth
The Atlantean; Doreal,
1939; 140p. This was another of Dr. BAUMRING’s
goodies that he talked about but refused to release. These are the amazing
translations of the original Emerald Tablets written by Hermes Trismegistus
in Ancient Egypt, which were recovered by Doreal in a Mayan temple in the Yucatan and
returned to the Hall of Records.
The Sun Book; John Hazelrigg; 1916.
Astrosophic Tractates; John Hazelrigg; 1936.
Secrets of the Meridian; Alec Stuart;
1926.
The Septiform System of the
Cosmos; Alec Stuart;
1935.
Kabbalistic, Alchemical and
Occult Symbolism of the Great Pyramid; Doreal;
1939.
Handbook of Mathematics;
J. Claudel; 1906; 708p. This book was
chosen by Jerry to give a complete mathematics introduction to his students.
It covers completely all that is needed in arithmetic, algebra, trigonometry,
and calculus.
Ancient Mysteries and Modern
Revelations; W. J. Colville; 1916; 352p.
The Magic of Numbers; Eric Temple Bell; 1946;418.
Kabbalah; W. J. Colville; 1916; 190p.
Sunspots and Their Effects; Harlan True Stetson; 1937; 200p.
Other Worlds Than Ours; Richard Proctor; 1880; 328p.
Astrosophic Principles; John Hazelrigg; 1917.
The Book of Enoch The Prophet; Richard Laurence; 1838; 250p.
Mystic Symbolism In Bible
Numerals; Leo Stalnaker; 1952; 150p.
The Last Shift of the Earth’s
Axis; Fred G. Plummer; 1894.
Introduction to the Theory of
Sets; Joseph Breuer; 1964.
Planetary and Stellar Worlds; Gen. O. M. Mitchel; 1891; 182p.
Cleoparta’s Needle; James King.
Stars Ahead; Ray and Josephine
Smyth.
The Alchemy of Light and Color; Oliver Reiser; 1928.
New Astronomy and Cosmic
Physiology; G. E. Sutcliffe.
Io Unveiled; Bozena Brydlova; 1922.
A wonderful book highly
recommended by Dr. BAUMRING.
Key To The Bible; Harry Walton; 1952.
Secret: The Gizeh Pyramids;
Thothmu Tastmona; 1954. One of Dr. BAUMRING’s
most highly recommended books on the pyramid.
Hand-book of Astrology; Zadikiel; 1863.
Eclipses and Lunations in Astrology; Sam Bartolet; 1937.
Periodicity: The Law of All
Life; Buchanan; 1912.
This book was stored in the depth of Dr. BAUMRING’s files and has obviously great
applications to the market.
The Science of Numerology
Through the Law of Vibration; John Laurie.
Another out of Dr. BAUMRING’s files never before released.
Pychoscopy; Hashnu Hara; 1905. This one also from Dr. BAUMRING’s files.
Why Life Exists; Lars Carlson; 1930; 224p. This one also out of Dr. BAUMRING’s private files.
The Symphony of Life; Donald Hatch Andrews; 1966; 423. From Dr. BAUMRING's reading list.
Long Range Astro Weather Forecasting;
George McCormack; 1965. Also from Dr. BAUMRING’s files.
The Web of the Universe; E. L. Gardner; 1960. A great book
on universal lattices.
BAUMRING
FINANCIAL MARKET READING LIST
Primary Recommendations: These were the
books recommended by Dr. BAUMRING to his students as the most
essential and important books for any student of the markets and particularly
of forecasting. They are the all time classics of Technical Analysis and
fundamental to any market education.
W. D. GANN
COMPLETE WRITINGS
Investing For Profit With
Torque Analysis of Stock Market Cycles;
William C. Garrett; 1997. New Quality
Hardbound Edition. One of the greatest and deepest technical analysis books
ever written, out of print and unattainable for the last 20 years.
Graphs and Their Application
to Speculation;
Geo. W. Cole; 1936; 278p. Dr. BAUMRING
had Gann’s
own personal copy of this book in which Gann had marked numerous sections some of which
he extracted and included in his own works.
Technical Analysis and Stock
Market Profits;
Richard Schabacker; 410p. The all-time
classic on technical analysis and market formations. Stock Market Profits;
Richard Schabacker; 1934; 342p.
George Wollsten: Expert Stock
and Grain Trader;
George Bayer; 1946; 235p. Bayer probably
had the next deepest understanding of the esoteric aspect of the market after
Gann,
making his works quite valuable.
Turning 400 Years of Astrology
to Practical Use;
George Bayer; 1944; 184p. This book gives
insight into how Bayer did astrology, how to use it in the market.
Tubbs’ Stock Market
Correspondence Course;
Frank Tubbs. One of the best courses on
technical analysis discussing the famous Tubbs bottom.
Benner’s Prophecies of Future
Ups and Downs in Prices;
Samuel Benner; 1879. Probably the
earliest book on market forecasting and one of the finest.
Nature’s Law: The Secret of the Universe; R. N.
Elliot; 1946. This book extends Elliot’s wave principle by connecting it to
universal phenomena, and natural order.
The Wave Principle; R. N. Elliot; 1938. This is the original work on the Elliot Wave
by its discoverer.
"The Wave
Principle": A Series of Articles Published in 1939; R. N.
Elliot. Another exposition of the famous principle by its founder.
Pickell-Daniel Extension
Course of Grain Market Analysis;
Pickell and Daniel; 1937; 400p. One of
the greatest courses on grain market analysis includes weather pattern
analysis and compass projections.
Seven Studies in Stock Market
Trading; M. V. Woods; 1943. Important explanation
of the real meaning of periodicity.
Wyler Series on
Stock Market on Stock Market
Speculation: Vol.1
The Application of Scientific
Principles to Stock Speculation; Vol.2
Trading and Trending; Joseph
A. Wyler; 174&215p.
These books explain the markets in terms
of Newtonian mechanics.
Planetary Effects on Stock
Market Prices; James Mars Langham; 1932; 179p.
This book and its companion volume are the two best books on financial
astrology.
Cyclical market Forecasting
Stocks and Grains; James Mars Langham; 1938;
191p.
Economic Cycles Their Law and
Cause; Henry Ludwell Moore; 1914; 114p.
Forecasting the Yield and the
Price of Cotton; Henry Ludwell Moore; 1917; 173p.
Generating Economic Cycles; Henry Ludwell Moore; 1923; 141p.
Secondary Recommendations:
These books, though secondary recommendations, are still some of the best, if
not the only books on market analysis available. Dr. BAUMRING required that the
most serious students read the books on this list as well as those on the
previous list.
The One-Way Formula For
Trading Stocks and Commodities; William
Dunnigan;1957. This along with the I-S Method were considered by Dr. BAUMRING
to be the two best trend following systems ever developed, with which one
could make good profits even without the ability to forecast.
New Blueprints For Gains In
Stocks and Grains; William Dunnigan; 1954; 150p.
Gains in Grains; William Dunnigan; 1952.
Barometers For Forecasting
Stock Prices; William
Dunnigan.
The Elliot Wave Principle: A
Critical Appraisal; A. Hamilton Bolton; 1960; 115p.
Stock Market Prediction; Donald Bradley; 1948.
The Long Waves In Economic
Life; N. D. Kondratieff; 1944.
The ABC of Options and
Arbitrage; S. A. Nelson; 1904.
Relative Strength and Stock
Market Timing; Daniel Merkle; 1966 128p.
A New Technique of Stock
Market Forecasting; C. S. Johnson; 1931.
The Great Bull Market and
Collapse; National Graphic Co.; 1932.
Action-Reaction Signals; Edwin S. Quinn; 1950.
Basic Trend Barometer; Emil Schultheis; 1946; 200p.
Speculation As A Fine Art; Dickson F. Watts; 1865. Very Rare.
Minor Swings of the Stock
Market And Their Indications; B. Edlin; 1924.
How Money Is Made In Security
Investments; Henry Hall; 1908; 240p.
An Introduction to
Trend-Action; Richard Martin; 1943.
I Like the Depression; Henry Ansley; 1932. A humorous
book describing the pleasures of the depression.
Psychology of the Stock Market; G. C. Sedlin; 1912.
Magic of Making Money In The
Stock Market; Clif Stewart; 1951.
The "Todd Theory" of
Market Measurement and Price Projection; Payson
Todd; 1953.
The Psychology of Speculation; Henry Harper; 1926.
When to Sell To Assure Profits; James P. Morton; 1926; 158p.
Wall Street: Its Mysteries
Revealed Its Secrets Exposed; William C. Moore;
1921; 144p.
What Makes Stock Market Prices; Warren Hickernell; 1932; 200p.
Safe Methods of Stock
Speculation; William Stafford; 1902.
|
|
|
2013年10月3日星期四
DR. JEROME BAUMRING'S SUPPLEMENTARY REDING LISTS
2013年6月18日星期二
- Daniel Ferrera Wheels Within Wheels The Art of Forecasting Financial Market Cycles
- Daniel Ferrera – Mysteries of Gann Analysis Unveiled
- Daniel Ferrera – The Gann Pyramid – Square of Nine Essentials
- Daniel Ferrera – Studies in Astrological Bible Interpretation
- Daniel Ferrera – The Keys To Successful Speculation
- Bradley Cowan Market Science Volume I Square of Twelve
- Rabbi Daniel Lapin – Thou Shall Prosper – Ten Commandments for Making Money 2nd Edition
- Bradley Cowan Market Science Volume II Market Dynamics
- Bradley Cowan Market Science Volume I Square of Twelve
- Tim Ord – The Secret Science of Price and Volume – Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks
- Michael Jenkins The Secret Science of the Stock Market
- The ART of Trading Combining the Science of Technical Analysis with the Art of Reality Based Trading
- Richard D. Wyckoff – Stock Market Science and Technique
- Jared Martinez Market Traders Institute Forex Course
- Jerome Baumring – The Law of Vibration The Complete Gann I-IX Course Manuals
- SacredScience – Jerome Baumring – The Law of Vibration The Complete Gann I-IX Course Manuals
- Market Traders Institute – Forex Home Study Course
- Stan Harley – Cycles, Gann & Fibonacci
- Institute of Order Flow Analytics – Intensive Boot Camp 5 Day Course
- Victor Ledeboer – The Master of Time
2012年11月6日星期二
Gann interview
William D. Gann -
An
Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank His Remarkable
Predictions and Trading Records
(Reprinted
From an Article of The Ticker and Investment Digest Featuring W.D. Gann dated
December, 1909)
Sometime ago the attention of this magazine
was attracted by certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being
made by William
D. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance,
the exact points at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together
with prices close to the then prevailing figures which would
not be touched.
For instance, when the New York Central was
131 he predicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his
figures prove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of
any expert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gann
and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular use
which he was making of them in the market.
The results of this investigation are
remarkable in many ways.
It appears to be a fact Mr. W. D. Gann
has developed an entirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market
movements. He bases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since
the world began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man
and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries. We have asked Mr. Gann
for an outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to the
results obtained there from.
We submit this in full recognition of the
fact that in Wall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the
traditions and encourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually
welcomed by the majority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and
research. These activities the said majority abhors.
W. D. Gann's description of his
experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read with recognition of
the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in
a large majority of instances.
"For the past ten years I have devoted
my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I
lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to
the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the
subject."
"I soon began to realize that all
successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time
to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before
attempting to make any money out of it."
"Being in the Brokerage business
myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the
ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations
of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the
market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."
"I soon began to note the periodical
recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to
conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then
decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as
applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward
making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive
researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine
the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a
given time."
The working out of this law
determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of
either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the
effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.
"It is impossible here to give an
adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the
markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I
state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law
upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based.
Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been
impossible."
"In order to test the efficiency of my
idea I have not only put in years of labor in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day
in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going
over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have
incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore
Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time
to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to
& from the time
of E. H. Harriman; Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that,
whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with
natural law."
"In going over the history of markets
and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain
laws
govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks, and that there exists
a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements.
Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the
Exchange followed by periods of inactivity."
Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted
much space to "Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found
recurring at regular intervals of time.
The
law which I have applied will not only give
these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks.
By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine
at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest
resistance is to be met.
"Those in close touch with the market
have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of
stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active,
large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will
become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these
conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely
different rule operates on the decline."
"While Union Pacific and other
railroad stocks which made their high prices in
August were declining, United States Steel Common was steadily advancing. The law of
vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward
trend whilst others were trending downward."
"I
have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious
relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its
activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration
of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the
majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."
"The power to determine the trend of
the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual
stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of
vibration. Stocks are like electrons,
atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in
response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself
into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in
its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year
over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements
periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."
"From
my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do
the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks
are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by
the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since
all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance
with periodic law."
"Science
has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic
function of its atomic weight. A famous scientist has stated that 'we are
brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different
kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers
are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes
and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."
Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena,
whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of
causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
"If we wish to avert failure in
speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact
proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because
mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all
things. Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical
points of force."
"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is
exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of
phenomena on the globe."
Through the law of vibration every stock
in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity,
volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are
characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centres
of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their
own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle
explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead’ at other
times.
Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.
"After years of patient study I have
proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that
vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."
2012年8月10日星期五
Your Complete Guide To The Coming Fiscal Cliff
All you need to know about the fiscal cliff which will savage the US
economy in under 5 months, unless Congress finds a way to compromise at a
time when animosity and polarization in congress is the worst it has ever been in history.
Key dates:
The cliff in graphics:
The cliff in numbers:
The players:
And a Q&A from Goldman with its DC political economist Alec Phillips:
What is the “fiscal cliff”?
Alec: It’s the unhappy coincidence of about $600bn in tax increases and spending cuts that come about on January 1, 2013. Last year, we started calling this the “fiscal cliff.” On the tax side, the most significant policies are the income tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, and the payroll tax cut that has been in place for the last two years. The spending cut comes mainly from the “sequester,” with a smaller effect from the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits.
What do you mean by the “sequester”?
Alec: When Congress raised the debt limit last year, the bill it passed included over $2 trillion over ten years in projected spending cuts, from capping annual spending bills and a flat $109bn per year cut in spending known as the “sequester” that would take effect if a deficit reduction “super committee” failed to agree on $1.2trn in savings. The super committee failed, so now the sequester is scheduled to cut spending at the start of 2013, applied equally to defense and domestic spending.
How does the debt limit fit in?
Alec: It’s indirectly related to the fiscal cliff, since Congress will need to address it either at the end of this year or early next year. The debt limit is a legal cap on the amount of debt the Treasury can issue—it currently stands at $16.4 trillion—and covers publicly held debt as well as debt in the Medicare and Social Security trust funds. We think the limit will become binding on the Treasury by February 2013, though hopefully Congress will raise it when they deal with the fiscal cliff at year end.
What happens if the debt limit isn’t raised?
Alec: The Treasury brings in about $200bn each month, but pays out about $300bn, so it would be able to pay most but not all of its bills, with missed payments going into arrears. For some areas a sort of “first in first out” system might make sense, but it seems likely that the Treasury would prioritize interest payments.
What would be vulnerable to cuts in this situation?
Alec: Payments to federal employees, contractors, and health providers under Medicare would probably see effects right away. States, which receive hundreds of billions per year in federal grants, could also see a reduction in revenues. Social Security and other types of payments would probably also be delayed.
What are the key dates ahead for these issues?
Alec: The House recently voted to extend the 2001/2003 tax cuts in their entirety, and the Senate voted to extend the tax cuts on income under $250,000. Spending authority will need to be extended for the coming fiscal year before the current one ends on Sep. 30, but that looks fairly likely to happen without too much controversy. The election on November 6 will be the next key date, after which Congress is expected to come back and deal with the fiscal cliff, but any resolution most likely won’t occur until the end of December. If there is no resolution by then, Congress may come back early in 2013 and address it retroactively. We expect to hit the debt limit in February, which is around the same time that the semiannual interest payment on Treasury debt is due (see Page 3).
Will the election influence how this gets resolved?
Alec: Yes. Overall, the Republican position is to extend all of the income tax cuts and to avoid the defense cuts. Most Democrats prefer avoiding defense and non-defense cuts, and would like tax revenues to replace some of the lost savings from doing so. They also oppose extending the income tax cuts on upper incomes.
Will the election influence when this gets resolved?
Alec: Probably, but it’s not clear in which way. A clear-cut election victory by either party could hasten an agreement, while a close election could lead to a more protracted debate. On the other hand, if one party—the Republicans, for example—were to gain control of Congress and the White House, they might opt to delay action until they gain control 2013 if they can’t win concessions in 2012. A status-quo election outcome—i.e., the President wins reelection and the Democrats hold the Senate—might make an agreement in the lame duck session of Congress more likely. Of course, there is no clear-cut answer in any of these scenarios.
Will the fiscal cliff happen?
Alec: It’s not our central expectation. We assume that Congress will act in the lame-duck session after the election to extend most of the current policies until sometime in 2013. A three-to-six-months extension would allow them to address the debt limit and provide some time to come up with a longer-term fiscal plan that may involve tax reform and/or entitlement (Social Security/ Medicare) reform. The only part of the fiscal cliff that we expect to take effect at year end is the expiration of the payroll tax cut (because there seems to be broad agreement that this will eventually need to expire), along with continued phase down of emergency unemployment benefits.
What are other scenarios and their probabilities?
Alec: You have two general scenarios, one is that they extend the policies past the end of the year and the other is that they don’t. We think the odds that the fiscal cliff is allowed to take effect at the end of the year are probably about one in three. If that happened, Congress would probably step back in 2013 and reverse some of it, though even a temporary lapse could be disruptive for markets and the real economy. A long-term agreement before year end (i.e., longer than a full year) seems to be the least likely outcome.
Will the debate be cleaner or messier than last year?
Alec: Messier. First, the issue is just bigger. Last year, we just had the debt limit, whereas this year we have that same threat plus the fiscal cliff. Also, in order to resolve the issue last year Congress was able to agree to lower overall spending levels withoutspecifying where those cuts would come from. Now that those “easy” savings have been used, the options left are more specific spending cuts or tax increases that are more politically painful. Also, some politicians may find it advantageous to let the tax cuts expire, which would enable them to come back next year and enact tax relief on a smaller scale than exists currently. Even though it would lead to an overall increase in revenues, this would allow them to cast a vote to cut taxes next year (once rates have increased) rather than a vote to raise them this year.
What is the economic impact of your base case?
Alec: We assume a drag on GDP growth from fiscal policy of about 1.5% in 2013, due to the expiration of the payroll tax cut along with some smaller factors. Even if Congress extended everything, we think that federal fiscal policy would still weigh slightly on growth, particularly since federal spending is slowing.
What would the impact be of falling off the cliff?
Alec: If Congress took no action, we estimate around a 4% hit to GDP growth in 2013. If you assume an underlying trend of around 2.5%, that is likely to put the economy into recession. There might be some mitigating factors: Consumers might initially tap savings or borrow and not all of the federal spending cuts would kick in on day one. It is also possible that some business investment or hiring has already been delayed and could restart once the uncertainty has passed. But overall, letting these policies lapse all at once would be a very negative outcome. Of course, a short lapse that the new Congress quickly addresses in January would do less damage to the economy, though damage to policy credibility and markets might still be significant.
What is the Fed’s role here, if any?
Alec: In our base case we already assume that the Fed is going to ease policy in September, with renewed balance sheet expansion late this year or early in 2013. If we fall off the cliff in a more significant way, then the likelihood of easing and the magnitude of this easing would go up. But the Fed can’t offset a fiscal contraction of the size we’re talking about.
What sectors would be most impacted?
Alec: Defense and healthcare are the most obvious sectors, because they have relatively large shares of revenue from the Federal government, and they are also two places that the sequester is scheduled to hit hard at the end of the year if Congress doesn’t act. The cut to defense spending in particular would be almost certainly greater than 10% and may be closer to 20%. The fiscal cliff would also hit consumers’ disposable income, which is an important distinction with last year’s debt debate, in which most of the policy discussions were confined to a narrow set of industries and had little direct impact on consumers.
How concerned is the market about these issues?
Alec: To assess this, you can look at a basket of stocks that our colleagues in equity research have put together, which tracks
companies with large shares of government-related revenue. This index dropped very significantly on a relative basis to the S&Pabout a month ahead of the debt limit last year and it never fully recovered. We are starting to see some of that again this year, but the magnitude is obviously not the same so far. The other area where you would expect to see it is in consumer onfidence and we have seen some weaker confidence numbers recently, though, again, nothing like we saw around the debt limit last year.
Allison: Will the market react sooner this time?
Alec: Potentially, but it’s unclear. Last year we saw a clear reaction to the debt limit debate only about a month before the deadline. One would imagine the reaction this year would come further in advance of the event, since it’s a bigger issue and also because there are plenty of people who were caught off guard by last year’s developments and might be more proactive this time. That said, my sense is that many in the market are withholding judgment until the election happens, because it’s just so hard to predict before then how all of this will be resolved. That could mean a sharper reaction post-election, depending on the situation.
Will the US be downgraded again this year?
Alec: Probably not. It wouldn’t make much sense for the rating agencies to take a strong view on fiscal sustainability just ahead of the election and resolution of the fiscal cliff. They have implied as much in their recent commentary. That said, I believe the risk of a downgrade reemerges again next year, depending on how these fiscal issues are resolved. If a longer-term fiscal agreement either doesn’t happen next year and Congress continues with a sort of muddle-through approach, or if the agreement is just not as substantial as some would expect it to be—i.e., they aren’t able to stabilize the projected debt/GDP ratio by later in the decade—then a downgrade seems possible.
Will this series of events ultimately serve as a positive catalyst for longer-term fiscal reform?
Alec: Hopefully. The good news is that both parties seem optimistic that tax reform will be enacted next year. If it happens, it could also allow for entitlement reform. The bad news is that they need to bridge fundamental disagreements to get there. They are also working from a smaller segment of the budget—neither party appears comfortable with significant cuts to Social Security or Medicare in the next decade, and they disagree on how to handle taxes and some other areas of the budget. That doesn’t leave a lot of areas of the budget to work with to achieve savings.
Source: GS
Key dates:
The cliff in graphics:
The cliff in numbers:
The players:
And a Q&A from Goldman with its DC political economist Alec Phillips:
What is the “fiscal cliff”?
Alec: It’s the unhappy coincidence of about $600bn in tax increases and spending cuts that come about on January 1, 2013. Last year, we started calling this the “fiscal cliff.” On the tax side, the most significant policies are the income tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003, and the payroll tax cut that has been in place for the last two years. The spending cut comes mainly from the “sequester,” with a smaller effect from the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits.
What do you mean by the “sequester”?
Alec: When Congress raised the debt limit last year, the bill it passed included over $2 trillion over ten years in projected spending cuts, from capping annual spending bills and a flat $109bn per year cut in spending known as the “sequester” that would take effect if a deficit reduction “super committee” failed to agree on $1.2trn in savings. The super committee failed, so now the sequester is scheduled to cut spending at the start of 2013, applied equally to defense and domestic spending.
How does the debt limit fit in?
Alec: It’s indirectly related to the fiscal cliff, since Congress will need to address it either at the end of this year or early next year. The debt limit is a legal cap on the amount of debt the Treasury can issue—it currently stands at $16.4 trillion—and covers publicly held debt as well as debt in the Medicare and Social Security trust funds. We think the limit will become binding on the Treasury by February 2013, though hopefully Congress will raise it when they deal with the fiscal cliff at year end.
What happens if the debt limit isn’t raised?
Alec: The Treasury brings in about $200bn each month, but pays out about $300bn, so it would be able to pay most but not all of its bills, with missed payments going into arrears. For some areas a sort of “first in first out” system might make sense, but it seems likely that the Treasury would prioritize interest payments.
What would be vulnerable to cuts in this situation?
Alec: Payments to federal employees, contractors, and health providers under Medicare would probably see effects right away. States, which receive hundreds of billions per year in federal grants, could also see a reduction in revenues. Social Security and other types of payments would probably also be delayed.
What are the key dates ahead for these issues?
Alec: The House recently voted to extend the 2001/2003 tax cuts in their entirety, and the Senate voted to extend the tax cuts on income under $250,000. Spending authority will need to be extended for the coming fiscal year before the current one ends on Sep. 30, but that looks fairly likely to happen without too much controversy. The election on November 6 will be the next key date, after which Congress is expected to come back and deal with the fiscal cliff, but any resolution most likely won’t occur until the end of December. If there is no resolution by then, Congress may come back early in 2013 and address it retroactively. We expect to hit the debt limit in February, which is around the same time that the semiannual interest payment on Treasury debt is due (see Page 3).
Will the election influence how this gets resolved?
Alec: Yes. Overall, the Republican position is to extend all of the income tax cuts and to avoid the defense cuts. Most Democrats prefer avoiding defense and non-defense cuts, and would like tax revenues to replace some of the lost savings from doing so. They also oppose extending the income tax cuts on upper incomes.
Will the election influence when this gets resolved?
Alec: Probably, but it’s not clear in which way. A clear-cut election victory by either party could hasten an agreement, while a close election could lead to a more protracted debate. On the other hand, if one party—the Republicans, for example—were to gain control of Congress and the White House, they might opt to delay action until they gain control 2013 if they can’t win concessions in 2012. A status-quo election outcome—i.e., the President wins reelection and the Democrats hold the Senate—might make an agreement in the lame duck session of Congress more likely. Of course, there is no clear-cut answer in any of these scenarios.
Will the fiscal cliff happen?
Alec: It’s not our central expectation. We assume that Congress will act in the lame-duck session after the election to extend most of the current policies until sometime in 2013. A three-to-six-months extension would allow them to address the debt limit and provide some time to come up with a longer-term fiscal plan that may involve tax reform and/or entitlement (Social Security/ Medicare) reform. The only part of the fiscal cliff that we expect to take effect at year end is the expiration of the payroll tax cut (because there seems to be broad agreement that this will eventually need to expire), along with continued phase down of emergency unemployment benefits.
What are other scenarios and their probabilities?
Alec: You have two general scenarios, one is that they extend the policies past the end of the year and the other is that they don’t. We think the odds that the fiscal cliff is allowed to take effect at the end of the year are probably about one in three. If that happened, Congress would probably step back in 2013 and reverse some of it, though even a temporary lapse could be disruptive for markets and the real economy. A long-term agreement before year end (i.e., longer than a full year) seems to be the least likely outcome.
Will the debate be cleaner or messier than last year?
Alec: Messier. First, the issue is just bigger. Last year, we just had the debt limit, whereas this year we have that same threat plus the fiscal cliff. Also, in order to resolve the issue last year Congress was able to agree to lower overall spending levels withoutspecifying where those cuts would come from. Now that those “easy” savings have been used, the options left are more specific spending cuts or tax increases that are more politically painful. Also, some politicians may find it advantageous to let the tax cuts expire, which would enable them to come back next year and enact tax relief on a smaller scale than exists currently. Even though it would lead to an overall increase in revenues, this would allow them to cast a vote to cut taxes next year (once rates have increased) rather than a vote to raise them this year.
What is the economic impact of your base case?
Alec: We assume a drag on GDP growth from fiscal policy of about 1.5% in 2013, due to the expiration of the payroll tax cut along with some smaller factors. Even if Congress extended everything, we think that federal fiscal policy would still weigh slightly on growth, particularly since federal spending is slowing.
What would the impact be of falling off the cliff?
Alec: If Congress took no action, we estimate around a 4% hit to GDP growth in 2013. If you assume an underlying trend of around 2.5%, that is likely to put the economy into recession. There might be some mitigating factors: Consumers might initially tap savings or borrow and not all of the federal spending cuts would kick in on day one. It is also possible that some business investment or hiring has already been delayed and could restart once the uncertainty has passed. But overall, letting these policies lapse all at once would be a very negative outcome. Of course, a short lapse that the new Congress quickly addresses in January would do less damage to the economy, though damage to policy credibility and markets might still be significant.
What is the Fed’s role here, if any?
Alec: In our base case we already assume that the Fed is going to ease policy in September, with renewed balance sheet expansion late this year or early in 2013. If we fall off the cliff in a more significant way, then the likelihood of easing and the magnitude of this easing would go up. But the Fed can’t offset a fiscal contraction of the size we’re talking about.
What sectors would be most impacted?
Alec: Defense and healthcare are the most obvious sectors, because they have relatively large shares of revenue from the Federal government, and they are also two places that the sequester is scheduled to hit hard at the end of the year if Congress doesn’t act. The cut to defense spending in particular would be almost certainly greater than 10% and may be closer to 20%. The fiscal cliff would also hit consumers’ disposable income, which is an important distinction with last year’s debt debate, in which most of the policy discussions were confined to a narrow set of industries and had little direct impact on consumers.
How concerned is the market about these issues?
Alec: To assess this, you can look at a basket of stocks that our colleagues in equity research have put together, which tracks
companies with large shares of government-related revenue. This index dropped very significantly on a relative basis to the S&Pabout a month ahead of the debt limit last year and it never fully recovered. We are starting to see some of that again this year, but the magnitude is obviously not the same so far. The other area where you would expect to see it is in consumer onfidence and we have seen some weaker confidence numbers recently, though, again, nothing like we saw around the debt limit last year.
Allison: Will the market react sooner this time?
Alec: Potentially, but it’s unclear. Last year we saw a clear reaction to the debt limit debate only about a month before the deadline. One would imagine the reaction this year would come further in advance of the event, since it’s a bigger issue and also because there are plenty of people who were caught off guard by last year’s developments and might be more proactive this time. That said, my sense is that many in the market are withholding judgment until the election happens, because it’s just so hard to predict before then how all of this will be resolved. That could mean a sharper reaction post-election, depending on the situation.
Will the US be downgraded again this year?
Alec: Probably not. It wouldn’t make much sense for the rating agencies to take a strong view on fiscal sustainability just ahead of the election and resolution of the fiscal cliff. They have implied as much in their recent commentary. That said, I believe the risk of a downgrade reemerges again next year, depending on how these fiscal issues are resolved. If a longer-term fiscal agreement either doesn’t happen next year and Congress continues with a sort of muddle-through approach, or if the agreement is just not as substantial as some would expect it to be—i.e., they aren’t able to stabilize the projected debt/GDP ratio by later in the decade—then a downgrade seems possible.
Will this series of events ultimately serve as a positive catalyst for longer-term fiscal reform?
Alec: Hopefully. The good news is that both parties seem optimistic that tax reform will be enacted next year. If it happens, it could also allow for entitlement reform. The bad news is that they need to bridge fundamental disagreements to get there. They are also working from a smaller segment of the budget—neither party appears comfortable with significant cuts to Social Security or Medicare in the next decade, and they disagree on how to handle taxes and some other areas of the budget. That doesn’t leave a lot of areas of the budget to work with to achieve savings.
Source: GS
2012年8月8日星期三
On This Day In 2016
For a presidential election taking place when the US debt/GDP has for
the first time in 70 years crossed above 100%, in which over 50 million
Americans collect food stamps and disability, in which M2 just crossed
$10 trillion, in which total US debt is about to pass $16 trillion, and
when total nonfarm employees in America (133,235,000)
are the same as they were in April of 2005, it is quite surprising that
economics has not taken on a more decisive role in the electoral
debate.
But while both candidates may, for their own particular reasons, not want to bring up the slow motion trainwreck that is the US economy now, in 4 years whoever is running for president will not be so lucky, because as the US debt clock shows, assuming current rates of progression, things are about to get far, far worse.
To wit, this is how America will look like in 2016:
But while both candidates may, for their own particular reasons, not want to bring up the slow motion trainwreck that is the US economy now, in 4 years whoever is running for president will not be so lucky, because as the US debt clock shows, assuming current rates of progression, things are about to get far, far worse.
To wit, this is how America will look like in 2016:
- Total US debt: $22.2 trillion (an increase of over $6 trillion from today)
- Total debt per US taxpayer: $180,000
- Debt to GDP: 130% (30% higher than today)
- Food stamp recipients: 50 million
- M2: $14.3 trillion (an increase of over $4 trillion from today)
- Total US Unfunded liabilities of $147 trillion (or $1.2 million per taxpayer)
- $950 trillion in currency and credit derivatives, margined courtesy of TBTF banks' cash deposits (forget about the return of Glass-Steagall. Ever). That's in the US alone, which means roughly $2 quadrillion worldwide.
A Primer To Intraday Market Moves
While we have looked in the past at the incredible dominance of FOMC
days when it comes to stock market performance, recent intraday
performance of the major equity indices has had a somewhat repetitive
and rhythmic structure. We know volumes surge, pause, and surge; Tradestation has dug one step deeper into the actual performance structure intraday and found some fascinating trends. From the extremely
clear final-hour ramp to the oscillating bull-bear opening moves (and
the European close positive bias) across almost 30 years of price
behavior in bull and bear markets. The afternoons dominate market performance in bull markets and the morning session dominates the weakness in bear markets - so
fade the opening rally, buy the dip, cover half into Europe, hope into
the close appears the 'empirical route of least resistance' - for now.
Active traders make their livelihood in the charts of the intraday session, scanning the markets for recognizable patterns that are persistent and profitable over time. However, the intraday session is influenced by numerous factors. For example, trading activity has been known to increase prior to and after economic and earnings announcements. Developments in technical analysis can also influence price momentum, market swings and trend continuation. And then, of course, there’s always the completely unforeseen event that throws the market completely out of whack. While a certain degree of price movement will always be random, these and countless other factors come together to create observable trading biases. In this note below, the author will focus on trends and reversal points in the intraday session, with the goal of identifying bullish and bearish biases that active traders can put to use in their trading.
Intraday Bias Studies
In this section of the paper, intraday price trends of the S&P 500 Index are spotlighted using data as far back as 1987. Some of this information was conveyed in the March 8, 2011 Analysis Concepts paper, “Mapping the Intraday Price Movement in the S&P 500 Index” (http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/mapping-int...). In this paper, a similar study is constructed from a finer interval resolution (60 minute increments) with a variation in the construction of return calculations. Another difference is that basic plus (+) and minus (-) signs are used to depict whether the hour was positive or negative in percentage terms. This creates a clearer visual representation of the hourly trends that makes them easier to identify. All results are created from average returns; these average returns are calculated on an hourly interval but are generated from 30-minute bars between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., which includes pre- and post-market trading (price changes from the 4 p.m. bar to the 10 a.m. bar).
At first glance in Table 2 (below), what stands out is the number of positive periods at the 10 o’clock hour and in the 4 p.m. hour, with the bulk of the returns from the 10 a.m. hour coming from the pre-market session. The actual return from 9:30 a.m. to 10 a.m. is positive, though Table 2 also shows a bullish bias in the 4 p.m. hour as stocks make their way to the close. Going back to 1987, 21 of 25 occurrences had average returns that were positive for the 4 p.m. interval. Also of interest is the weakness that typically occurs in the 11 a.m. hour (10 a.m. to 11 a.m.). Again, for data going back to 1987, there were 18 occurrences where returns were negative for this interval. The market seems, on average, to take a breather in the 11 a.m. hour after its initial morning run-up. Another interesting statistic is that if stocks close higher on average into the 3 p.m. hour, their probability of moving higher into the 4 p.m. close is 70%.
Next, going back to September 11, 1984, trading biases in the S&P 500 Index intraday session are analyzed during longer-term bullish and bearish market cycles. As mentioned earlier, what really stands out in the data is a positive bias in the 4 p.m. hour of each bullish and bearish market cycle. Also, notice the positive and negative biases in the 10 a.m. hour, correlated to each bull and bear market cycle. Additionally, note that three of four bear market cycles had a negative bias on average from the 10 a.m. hour into the 2 p.m. hour.
Bull and Bear Market Intraday Return Relationships
Depending on how one categorizes them, the markets can experience cyclical periods of bull and bear runs for various lengths of time. A more traditional approach is to classify these events in percentage terms. Therefore, the rule applied here states that if the market advances or declines by more than 20 percent, this will constitute a bull or bear move. Price movement of this magnitude is recognized by many financial market professionals as a change in market cycle.
Figure 7 (above) represents the compounded total return of the S&P 500 Index for the first, second, and third periods (9:30 to 11:40, 11:40 to 1:50, and 1:50 to 4:00) of the trading session within each successive bull and bear market from 9/1/1983 to the present time. In analyzing the data, the information is evident. First, the 9/1/1983 to 8/21/1987 and 12/4/1987 to 3/24/2000 bull markets, which occurred in the first two decades of the data, had most of their returns formulated from the last third of the trading session (1:50 to 4:00). At the same time, the 10/4/2002 to 10/12/2007 bull market, along with the current one, have had greater returns occur in the first third of the day's session (9:30 to 11:40).
In Figure 8 (above), we can see that in bull markets, the positive returns that the market experiences on average come from all three periods of the intraday session. However, the returns are highest in the first (24.33 percent) and third (74.52 percent) periods, with the second period still being positive at 14.44 percent. We should point out the return impact of the 268.84 percent in the third period of the 12/4/1987 to 3/24/2000 bull market. Even if we cut this number down by some factor, the returns are still significant for this period.
As we look at the sequence of returns in bear markets, they are also very interesting. They typically start with painful selling in the first third of trading, as Figure 9 (above) illustrates. The average bear market return shows that from the 9:30 to 11:40 period, the return was -29.69 percent. In bear market cycles, however, the market selling becomes less pronounced as the day progresses. The second period of trading returned -9.60 percent on average, while the third period returned -1.07 percent on average.
So in bear market cycles, there seems to be some good opportunity to either short early in the first third of the trading session or buy on weakness somewhere in the last third of the session.
Active traders make their livelihood in the charts of the intraday session, scanning the markets for recognizable patterns that are persistent and profitable over time. However, the intraday session is influenced by numerous factors. For example, trading activity has been known to increase prior to and after economic and earnings announcements. Developments in technical analysis can also influence price momentum, market swings and trend continuation. And then, of course, there’s always the completely unforeseen event that throws the market completely out of whack. While a certain degree of price movement will always be random, these and countless other factors come together to create observable trading biases. In this note below, the author will focus on trends and reversal points in the intraday session, with the goal of identifying bullish and bearish biases that active traders can put to use in their trading.
Intraday Bias Studies
In this section of the paper, intraday price trends of the S&P 500 Index are spotlighted using data as far back as 1987. Some of this information was conveyed in the March 8, 2011 Analysis Concepts paper, “Mapping the Intraday Price Movement in the S&P 500 Index” (http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/mapping-int...). In this paper, a similar study is constructed from a finer interval resolution (60 minute increments) with a variation in the construction of return calculations. Another difference is that basic plus (+) and minus (-) signs are used to depict whether the hour was positive or negative in percentage terms. This creates a clearer visual representation of the hourly trends that makes them easier to identify. All results are created from average returns; these average returns are calculated on an hourly interval but are generated from 30-minute bars between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., which includes pre- and post-market trading (price changes from the 4 p.m. bar to the 10 a.m. bar).
At first glance in Table 2 (below), what stands out is the number of positive periods at the 10 o’clock hour and in the 4 p.m. hour, with the bulk of the returns from the 10 a.m. hour coming from the pre-market session. The actual return from 9:30 a.m. to 10 a.m. is positive, though Table 2 also shows a bullish bias in the 4 p.m. hour as stocks make their way to the close. Going back to 1987, 21 of 25 occurrences had average returns that were positive for the 4 p.m. interval. Also of interest is the weakness that typically occurs in the 11 a.m. hour (10 a.m. to 11 a.m.). Again, for data going back to 1987, there were 18 occurrences where returns were negative for this interval. The market seems, on average, to take a breather in the 11 a.m. hour after its initial morning run-up. Another interesting statistic is that if stocks close higher on average into the 3 p.m. hour, their probability of moving higher into the 4 p.m. close is 70%.
Next, going back to September 11, 1984, trading biases in the S&P 500 Index intraday session are analyzed during longer-term bullish and bearish market cycles. As mentioned earlier, what really stands out in the data is a positive bias in the 4 p.m. hour of each bullish and bearish market cycle. Also, notice the positive and negative biases in the 10 a.m. hour, correlated to each bull and bear market cycle. Additionally, note that three of four bear market cycles had a negative bias on average from the 10 a.m. hour into the 2 p.m. hour.
Bull and Bear Market Intraday Return Relationships
Depending on how one categorizes them, the markets can experience cyclical periods of bull and bear runs for various lengths of time. A more traditional approach is to classify these events in percentage terms. Therefore, the rule applied here states that if the market advances or declines by more than 20 percent, this will constitute a bull or bear move. Price movement of this magnitude is recognized by many financial market professionals as a change in market cycle.
Figure 7 (above) represents the compounded total return of the S&P 500 Index for the first, second, and third periods (9:30 to 11:40, 11:40 to 1:50, and 1:50 to 4:00) of the trading session within each successive bull and bear market from 9/1/1983 to the present time. In analyzing the data, the information is evident. First, the 9/1/1983 to 8/21/1987 and 12/4/1987 to 3/24/2000 bull markets, which occurred in the first two decades of the data, had most of their returns formulated from the last third of the trading session (1:50 to 4:00). At the same time, the 10/4/2002 to 10/12/2007 bull market, along with the current one, have had greater returns occur in the first third of the day's session (9:30 to 11:40).
In Figure 8 (above), we can see that in bull markets, the positive returns that the market experiences on average come from all three periods of the intraday session. However, the returns are highest in the first (24.33 percent) and third (74.52 percent) periods, with the second period still being positive at 14.44 percent. We should point out the return impact of the 268.84 percent in the third period of the 12/4/1987 to 3/24/2000 bull market. Even if we cut this number down by some factor, the returns are still significant for this period.
As we look at the sequence of returns in bear markets, they are also very interesting. They typically start with painful selling in the first third of trading, as Figure 9 (above) illustrates. The average bear market return shows that from the 9:30 to 11:40 period, the return was -29.69 percent. In bear market cycles, however, the market selling becomes less pronounced as the day progresses. The second period of trading returned -9.60 percent on average, while the third period returned -1.07 percent on average.
So in bear market cycles, there seems to be some good opportunity to either short early in the first third of the trading session or buy on weakness somewhere in the last third of the session.
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)